Global business travel spend is expected to grow by 11.1 per cent in 2024, hitting $1.48 trillion by the end of the year, with further growth of 10.4 per cent predicted in 2025.
That's according to the GBTA's 2024 Global Business Travel Outlook published this week, which noted that although this year is likely to see total spending surpass pre-pandemic records for the first time (beating 2019’s figure of $1.43 trillion), it would still lag all-time highs on an inflation-adjusted basis and imply that volumes will be below 2019 levels.
In 2023, global business travel spending reached $1.34 trillion, representing a 30 per cent increase on 2022 – marginally lower than the 32 per cent growth projected in last year's report.
Nevertheless, "spend recovery remains well intact, despite this slight underperformance", the GBTA’s report noted. It continued: "We expect growth to remain positive throughout the forecast horizon, although the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will slow to 7 per cent, down from 26 per cent between 2020 and 2023."
According to the report, global business travel spend could surpass $2 trillion in 2028 by which time annual growth will have normalised to 6 per cent, closer to the long-run average of 4.5 per cent for the sector.
Presenting the report at the GBTA Convention in Atlanta, CEO Suzanne Neufang said: “With projected spending expected to continue to increase through 2028, the future of business travel looks promising.
“However, we must remain vigilant and adaptive to potential headwinds in this period of stabilisation, as factors such as changing economic conditions, technological advancements and sustainability developments will also shape the sector ahead.”
Credit: GBTA
Neufang also pointed to persistent inflation, China's slower recovery, geopolitical tensions, workforce challenges and an increased focus on sustainability as all having a potential impact on forecasted growth in the years ahead.
Regionally, business travel spending grew most rapidly in Asia Pacific in 2023 (up 36 per cent versus 2022), Western Europe (up 33 per cent) and North America (25 per cent), with North America, the Middle East and Latin America all matching or surpassing 2019 spending levels.
Business travel spend in Western Europe reached $315 billion in 2023, which was 94 per cent of the pre-pandemic high set in 2019, while Asia Pacific reached 89 per cent ($545 billion) and “emerging” Europe languished on 69 per cent ($39 billion), largely due to the impact of the war in Ukraine.
The GBTA report noted that six countries – Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK – together accounted for 76 per cent of Western Europe’s business travel spending in 2023.
The region accounts for 24 per cent of total global spend and is expected to see growth of 10 per cent in 2024 taking spend up to $346 billion, which would see it “nominally recovering” to pre-pandemic spending levels.
Germany was Europe's largest business travel market in 2023 with spend of $70.2 billion, ranking it third globally behind China and US. The UK is the second-largest European market at $44.9 billion, followed by France ($42.9 billion), Italy ($32.2 billion), Spain ($25.4 billion) and the Netherlands ($23.3 billion).